By D. A. Jawo, Banjul, The Gambia

It is barely six months to the next presidential elections, and yet, it is only Yahya Jammeh who is out campaigning, of course in the guise of ‘Dialogue with the People’ tour. The opposition parties are keeping so quiet as if nothing is about to happen for the next decade.

Indeed, the complete quietness in the opposition camp is no doubt why President Jammeh said on the first day of his country-wide tour that he was not going to campaign, even though his every action and utterance, including holding rallies to welcome so-called carpet crossers from the UDP, during the tour, tantamount to campaigning.

While there had been some sabre rattling between the leadership of UDP and PDOIS, there has never been any serious attempt to form some sort of a strategic alliance between the only two active opposition parties left in the ring to challenge the APRC. With all the others either hibernating or, like NDAM, GDP or NCP, having completely been submerged into the APRC.

Therefore, with the present situation, President Jammeh can confidently say that he does not need to campaign in order to win the next elections with a ‘landslide’. This is because his opponents are yet to indicate that they are ready to put up any formidable challenge to the APRC hegemony during the elections or at any time.

Of course it is a well known fact that the popularity of both President Jammeh and his APRC is at rock bottom, and there is no way that they can win a free and fair election in this country, but the facts are quite glaring that free and fair elections cannot obtain under the present political dispensation. We have all witnessed the persistent repression of the media and the opposition, including the imprisonment of the UDP campaign manager, Femi Peters for one year for merely organizing a UDP rally without a police permit, which the APRC does on a daily basis, and yet no policeman would dare to confront them.

We have also seen how President Jammeh has been going around during his country-wide tour threatening not to bring government projects to those areas that vote against him, as if the money for those projects comes from his pocket and not the Gambian tax payers’ money, which includes the opposition supporters.

What is therefore likely to happen during the elections is that the voter turn-out would be much lower than in the last elections in 2006 when less than 50 per cent actually turned out to vote. Only those very few Gambians who support Yahya Jammeh as well as those non-Gambians who have been registered to vote in the country would come out to vote, and the vast majority of the people would stay at home, for lack of a credible alternative, no doubt as a result of the failure of the opposition to come out with a credible strategy to confront the APRC.

What is therefore likely to happen in the end, regardless of the turn-out, the APRC, with the use of its propaganda tool, the GRTS, would claim a ‘landslide’ victory. Therefore, His Excellency, President Professor Dr. Retired Colonel Alhaji Yahya Abdul Aziz Jemus Junkung Jammeh, Medical Myth Buster (MMB), Baabili Mansa, and the victor of the demons at Miniminiyang Bolong and Sankualy Kunda crossing, will be sworn in for a third term as president of this country with pomp and gaiety. Then the system will not only continue, but The Gambia’s reputation will continue to deteriorate while the ship of state will get stuck deeper and deeper into the mud.

With this trend, The Gambia is certainly heading for the rocks and unless rescue comes soon, it is hard to predict what would happen in the next five years under this system.