Bombshell

Wikileaks on Gambia

 --How the USA sees Jammeh, Darboe, Bah and Sallah  

Viewing cable 06 BANJUL548, GAMBIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION -- CANDIDATE PROFILES: BANJUL 00000548 001.2 OF 003

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES C.P. ALSUP, REASON 1.4 (b and d)

¶1. (U) The Gambian Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has accepted the nominations of three candidates to contest the September 22 Gambian presidential election.  As expected the ruling Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC) has nominated incumbent president Yahya Jammeh to stand as its candidate.  Prominent attorney Ousainou Darboe is the nominee of the alliance between the United Democratic Party (UDP) and the National Reconciliation Party (NRP).

National Assembly Member Halifa Sallah will run as the candidate of the National Alliance for Democracy and Development (NADD).  The three candidates filed their nominations on August 28 (Ref A) before the Chairman of the IEC amid great fanfare and media coverage.  Many thousands of  the candidates' supporters crowded the streets around the IEC office in impromptu rallies that included drumming and dancing.  A fourth candidate, Henry Gomez of the Gambia Party for Democracy and Progress (GPDP), also sought to run in the presidential race, but his candidacy was rejected because he did not meet the residency requirements.  Gomez and his party have since aligned themselves with Darboe's UDP/NRP alliance.

 Following are profiles of each of the candidates.

THE MERCURIAL INCUMBENT, PRESIDENT YAHYA JAMMEH

¶2. (U) The front-runner in the race is incumbent President Dr. Alhaji Yahya A.J.J. Jammeh, who became head of state in July 1994 when he led a military coup that toppled the civilian government headed by Sir Dawda Jawara who had ruled the Gambia since its independence in 1965. After a two-year transition period, Jammeh, who is a Jola, the smallest ethnic group in the country, and his colleagues retired from the army and set up the APRC to contest the 1996 presidential election which he won amid widespread allegations of irregularities and fraud.  In 2001, he was re-elected President in a contest deemed by the international community to be "free and fair, with some shortcomings."  Jammeh's supporters point to improvements in education, healthcare, roads, and a relatively good airport as evidence of the progress that President Jammeh has fostered in The Gambia compared to the Jawara regime.  His detractors point to human rights abuses and the wealth that President Jammeh has amassed while the Gambian people continue to experience persistent problems with electricity and water supply.

¶3. (C) President Jammeh, now 41, a former army lieutenant with little formal education, has become one of the wealthiest men in The Gambia.  There is widespread belief that he came by this wealth by pilfering the public coffers. His administration is rife with corruption and a climate of cronyism.  His personality is mercurial -- he can be charming, as he is on the campaign trail, but he can also be ruthless and spiteful, arresting critics from the media and opposition politicians, and firing Ministers and other civil servants for questioning  or embarrassing him.  He is prone to hyperbole and bravado in his speeches and often makes outlandish remarks such as saying that some coup d’états are good and that the Gambian people will have to wait at least 30 years before he turns over power.

¶4. (C) He is eager to be perceived as an African statesman, but pursues that goal through pomp, pageantry and excess, rather than through substantive achievements.  He has no appreciation of the concept of separation of powers and wields his power relentlessly over most branches and agencies of the Gambian government. He has no qualms about asking civil servants to join the APRC and to campaign for him.  He has little regard for the Gambian constitution except when he wants to change it to suit his needs.  His unilateral removal of the IEC Chairman last month (Ref C) was contrary to the constitution and destroyed any semblance that the IEC is truly "Independent."

¶5. (C) Under President Jammeh the government of The Gambiahas been a strong defender of religious freedom and moderate Islam, condemning Muslim extremists and terrorism and holding itself out as model for the world on religious tolerance.

The GOTG has been very cooperative with the U.S. on

counterterrorism.  The GOTG's human rights record is mixed, however.  Since the March 2006 coup attempt, the Gambia's human rights record has deteriorated significantly.

Journalists have been arrested and tortured and media outlets have been shuttered. Alleged coup plotters have disappeared.

Many people have been arrested and held for weeks beyond the statutory 72-hour limit that a person can be held without charges.

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¶6.  (C) President Jammeh is fickle with his loyalties,

changing them depending on who is providing the most

assistance.  He has a penchant for states that provide aid

money with few or no strings attached.  Taiwan has been

extremely generous to The Gambia and The Gambia has in turn been a staunch proponent for recognition of Taiwan in international organizations including the UN and the World Health Organization.  The U.S., on the other hand, is in Jammeh's bad graces now because of the suspension of the Gambia's MCA eligibility.  That suspension seems to have pushed Jammeh towards countries who are not friends of the U.S., e.g. Iran (Ref B) and Venezuela.

 

¶7. (C) COMMENT.  President Jammeh wants to win the September election by a wide margin -- he has said he wants more than 70 percent of the vote so that he can say he won with a larger majority than any other elected African leader and so that no one can question that he has a clear mandate from the people.  Accordingly, we expect him to use every means at his disposal as the incumbent to ensure a big win.  On September

3, on the third day of his "Dialogue with the People tour" of the nation, he warned that his government will only develop areas that vote for him in the upcoming election.  END

COMMENT.

 

THE PERENNIAL CANDIDATE, LAWYER OUSAINOU DARBOE

 

¶7.  (U) The second most well-known candidate is 56-year old lawyer Ousainou Darboe, the candidate of the UDP/NRP alliance. Darboe's running mate is Hamat Bah, the vocal former National Assembly Member and leader of the NRP.  This will be Darboe's third attempt at the presidency.  In the two previous contests (1996 and 2001), he led a group of opposition parties in a coalition which later accused the government of electoral fraud.  The soft-spoken "Lawyer Darboe," as he is popularly called, comes from the largest ethnic group in The Gambia, the Mandinkas.  Darboe receives financial support for his campaign from some local businesses as well as from Gambians living overseas.

 ¶8. (C) Darboe seems to be relying on tribal loyalties to

secure victory at the polls on September 22.  His alliance

with Hamat Bah appears to be calculated to win the votes of Bah's tribal group, the Fulas, the second largest in the country.  Darboe and Bah were members of NADD but withdrew from NADD when the alliance failed to agree on a single candidate to challenge President Jammeh.  Darboe has stated that it his destiny to become President and believes that Jammeh's poor governance and human rights record will motivate Gambians to vote en mass for anyone other than the

incumbent.

 

¶9.  (C) COMMENT.  It is unclear how a Darboe administration would differ from the present administration, except perhaps the likely cessation of blatant human rights abuses.  Darboe has not, in this contest, or any previous contests, presented a clear outline of his vision for progress and development in

the country.  He sometimes gives the impression that he wants the presidency not for what he can do for The Gambia but for

what being president of The Gambia can do for him.  While he has not hesitated to come to the Embassy to complain about President Jammeh or the APRC, it is not clear whether he would be a reliable ally for the U.S. END COMMENT.

 

THE INTELLECTUAL CANDIDATE, PARLIAMENTARIAN

 HALIFA SALLAH

 

¶10. (U) U.S.-trained sociologist and National Assembly Member Halifa Sallah, aged 53, is the candidate for the three remaining parties that comprise the NADD alliance.  Sallah is also a member of the Pan-African parliament.  He is an astute intellectual and one of the country's most vocal critics of the current administration.  He is known and respected throughout the country and abroad for his constant admonishment of President Jammeh's government for its failure to adhere to the country's constitution and the principles of democracy.  Sallah receives considerable financial support from Gambians living in the U.S. and Europe.

 ¶11. (U) Sallah was arrested in November 2005 along with two other members of the NADD Executive Committee based on accusations by President Jammeh that the trio was trying to incite trouble between The Gambia and its larger and more powerful neighbor, Senegal.  The verbal accusations, later transformed into formal charges of sedition, were eventually dropped following the intervention of President Obasanjo of Nigeria.

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 ¶12. (C) As editor of his party's newspaper, Foroyaa

(Freedom), Sallah has a captive platform for delivering his message of development and growth through education and anti-corruption efforts.  But Sallah's intellectualism, apparent in everything that Sallah says or writes, may be his downfall.  He talks over the heads of ordinary Gambians, often using complex evaluations and explanations to make even the most mundane point.  Even other intellectuals sometimes find it difficult to follow his arguments.  As a result, NADD's support base is mainly limited to the more affluent, educated Gambians and to the urban areas.  To expand its base, NADD has indicated that it plans to make a serious

effort to target younger Gambian voters.

 ¶13.  (C) COMMENT.  A win by Halifa Sallah would almost certainly usher in a new era in Gambian government and politics.  Sallah's ideas are consistent with democratic principles and we would expect a Sallah administration to be a reliable friend of the U.S. END COMMENT.

ALSUP