By Abdoulie Jallow

In July 1994, many progressive Gambians saw hope in a new generation of supposedly ardent self proclaimed revolutionaries (as in “soldiers with a difference”). Subsequent events have more than chilled the optimism in the early days of the curtailment or the reversal of Jawara’s not-so-bad progressive leadership into the ever so familiar form of autocratic rule. Why must The Gambia be cursed with a tyrant? Do we know our predicament as a nation?

The Gambia stands at a crucial crossroads in her political evolution as we face simultaneous challenges from a mentally drained leadership, domestic, regional and global forces. Despite all surface appearances to the contrary, The Gambia is governed autocratically. As such, Gambians will have to make much harder decisions to be in a better position to face the existent threats to our political stability, social cohesion, cultural integrity and economic viability. The demands for political pluralism, democracy and transparency – no matter how weak they may appear to be – must continue to be felt both within and outside The Gambia. The Save The Gambia Democracy Project, The Gambia Democracy Movement, The Movement for Restoration of Democracy in Gambia (New York and U.K) and many other groups are but a few important and highly visible such effort originating from Diaspora Gambians but similar appeals are derived from diverse sources including international human rights organizations, Press Freedom advocates, domestic political opponents and multilateral lending institutions.

Economically and socially as well, the demands for visible improvements in basic needs of the average Gambian and the quality of life must cut across distinct social classes and tribal or regional groupings. Despite the constant effort to portray significant improvements in macro and micro-economic performance by the derelict machinery we have for a government, sensible revival effort such as expanded privatization, increased foreign direct investment, implementing transparency and the rule of law, rooting out corruption and nepotism, and creating an overall environment conducive to productive human effort will have to be stimulated and nurtured to realize the full potential of The Gambia’s economy.

The current condition of political oppression, social marginalization and economic deprivation, is helping create a wide-ranging landscape of disaffected young people ever ready to engage in endangering activity often catalyzed by the perceived prospects to “make it” abroad and get rich quick as if there is any short cut to riches. Consequently, there now exists a nearly complex and vaguely intricate web of intertwined forces connecting autocratic political orders with anemic levels of socioeconomic development impacting most directly a broad swath of an alienated and disillusioned populace who find salvation in the cathartic appeals of a puritanical cult of sycophants.

Meanwhile, a prescient observation of the last 12 years of politics in The Gambia will not fail to yield the conclusion that the central problem of the A(F)PRC government today is deficit political legitimacy - exacerbated by the lassitude shown by majority of Gambians in the two recent elections - masked by an incessant decadence of self destructive personalities amongst the leadership. The shortage of this indispensable political resource largely accounts for the volatile nature of A(F)PRC governance and the autocratic character of the manifestly irresolute leadership nurtured by the inadvertent nonchalance of a largely frightened and disillusioned populace.

The strength, coherence, and effectiveness of Yahya Jammeh’s coercive apparatus could perhaps be explained by the contributive influence of a number of overlapping causal factors inherent in Gambia’s social disposition. These factors could be classified into and subjected to several broad categories of interpretations as in the state of national security, economic determinants, cultural influences, political explanations, the role of religion, and gender-based causes. It is my opinion that these factors provide the most useful framework of analysis in attempting to explain Jammeh's enduring authoritarianism.

Focusing on the enabling capabilities and the influence of the national security apparatus at Jammeh’s dispensation, one can easily identify the following determinative conditions: the level and kind of international support networks; the degree of institutionalization of the military and whether it operates according to legal-rational criteria or at the whims of Jammeh’s dictate; the existence of popular political mobilization; and the consequences of perceived or real threats to state security. These do not embody the full universe of possible reasons why Yahya Jammeh’s authoritarianism remains so robust but they do help identify critical structural factors that transcend issues of politics, culture, history, personality, or religion that have often been invoked by many in trying to understand what is happening to our dear Gambia and her people. Few will disagree that the existing set of interdependent institutional, economic, social, and geopolitical factors has created an enabling ecology of repression, control, and farcical deception. The web-like quality of this political ecosystem both help Jammeh’s autocracy to survive and makes him averse to giving up control in manifestation of a minute strand of human decency - which he very well lacks.

(To be continued)